Lesson
Fair Price vs. Market Price
Two different numbers, and mixing them up is how people talk themselves into bad bets. One is what a book is charging you. The other is what the bet is actually worth.
Quick answer
Market price is the number a sportsbook actually posts, cut already included. Fair price is what that same bet would cost with the vig stripped out. An edge exists only when the market price is meaningfully better than the fair price.
Market price is just what's posted
The market price is the number sitting on the board right now, the one you'd actually bet at. It already has the book's cut baked into it, and it moves around based on who's betting what, not on some pure calculation of who's going to win.
Fair price is what it would cost with no cut
Fair price is a made-up number, in a good way. It's what the price would be if you stripped the vig back out and just priced the bet on its actual odds of happening. Nobody posts a fair price, it's not a real number you can bet at, it's a reference point you use to judge the real number against.
Same bet, two different numbers
| Market price (what's posted) | +142 |
| Fair price (what it should be) | +115 |
The book is offering more than the bet is actually worth. That gap between +142 and +115 is where an edge lives.
Where the fair price comes from
You need some way to estimate the real odds of something happening that isn't just the market's own number, otherwise you're comparing a price to itself. That's what a projection is for, our model runs its own estimate independent of what any sportsbook is offering, and that estimate becomes the fair price it compares against the market.
Why the gap is the whole point
If the market price and the fair price are basically the same, there's no edge, you're just paying full price for a bet that's priced correctly. The only time a bet is actually worth making is when the market's giving you a better number than what the bet is really worth. Not because you like a team. Because the price itself is off.
A price can be wrong without your projection being right
Worth saying plainly: having an edge on paper doesn't guarantee a win. It means you're getting a better price than the situation deserves, over and over, that edge should turn into profit. Any single bet can still lose. This is why our own release process also checks lineups, calibration, and uncertainty before anything gets published, a price gap alone isn't enough on its own.
Fair price and market price: frequently asked questions
What is fair price in sports betting?
Fair price is the odds implied by an estimated true probability before sportsbook margin. It is a comparison point, not necessarily a number available to bet.
What is market price in sports betting?
Market price is the number currently offered. It can change by sportsbook and over time, so a recorded edge must be tied to a specific price and timestamp.
How do you find an edge?
Convert the offered price and the model's fair price into probabilities, then compare them after accounting for margin and uncertainty. A positive difference is only a candidate; data quality, calibration and context still have to clear.
What is a playable-through price?
It is the worst price that still preserves the minimum required edge. If fair value is -120, a model might allow a release only at -110 or better. Once the market moves past the threshold, the same selection becomes a pass even though the underlying opinion has not changed.