MLB · CFB · NFL model boards
Today's picks, front and center.
Every qualifying play appears here first. If the board is empty, the model evaluated the slate and passed—or a required data check is still open.
Available now
Current model plays
Checking every active model board
Only current, verified plays can replace this message.
Monitoring rows are not picks. They appear only to explain what the engines are waiting on.
Available now passed every model, price, lineup and freshness check.
Monitoring has model interest but is waiting on a required check. It is not a pick.
No release means the engine passed on the market. It does not mean the board is broken.
What the numbers mean
The selection is only useful at the displayed price. The model probability and fair price explain why it qualified.
01 · Pick
Selection and market
The team, total, or player outcome the model supports. NFL sides, totals and props remain ungraded and carry zero units.
02 · Price
Take only the listed number
A strong prediction can become a bad bet at a worse price. The sportsbook and captured price are part of the play.
03 · Probability
Model versus market
Model probability is our estimate. Market probability removes the sportsbook margin so the comparison is like-for-like.
04 · Status
Released or still waiting
Only Available now is a current play. Monitoring explains an open gate; No release means the engine passed.
The record
Net units and ROI are the record. Win rate is decoration — it's trivially inflated by betting heavy favourites.
Cumulative net units
Every settled release in order. Flat stretches and drawdowns stay in the line.
How a market becomes a release
Every market on the slate runs the same path. Most end in a rejection, and the rejections get published too.
Project, then price
Produce a probability with a width to it, strip the vig out of the market's number, and compare. Everything before this step is an opinion.
Run the gates
Lineups, starters, bullpen, weather, injuries. A projection that depends on an unconfirmed lineup waits rather than releases.
Set a walk-away price
Every release carries the number past which it stops being worth taking. No position is playable at any price.
Record it, permanently
Release price, timestamp, stake and model version are stored with the position. On settlement, closing line and CLV. Nothing is edited afterwards.
Get the board when it posts
One email a day when the slate has been evaluated. No picks in the subject line, no manufactured urgency, no upsell while the board is free.