CFB Props Lab · Saturday, September 12
A verified five-market capture, narrowed through the same matchup logic used in the Film Room. This is where we test the prop workflow in public without pretending the unfinished player model has issued a bet.
The engine captured real prices and the Film Room supplies directional football context, but player-level probabilities, fair prices and forward calibration are not finished. These three angles are a transparent watchlist—not A grades.
Film Room overlay
OKLAHOMA
The Film Room’s strongest player opportunity is Mateer finishing otherwise-defended downs with his legs. The captured market ranged from 30.5 to 33.5, making the lower threshold the useful signal.
Film Room confidence: high · Prop-model grade: noneMICHIGAN
Michigan’s cleanest counter is planned movement that changes the run count. Four books posted the same 31.5 line; Caesars offered even money while the others were −114 to −115.
Film Room confidence: medium · Prop-model grade: noneOKLAHOMA
Sategna is the Film Room’s explosive-play path. The capture found 59.5 here while Bovada, FanDuel and Caesars were already at 63.5—a four-yard threshold difference that matters more than a few cents.
Film Room confidence: medium · Prop-model grade: nonePrice-shopping board
These are the clearest line or price disagreements in the frozen snapshot. They identify where shopping mattered; they do not establish an edge against fair value.
| Player | Market | Best captured look | Market comparison | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Mateer | Rush yards | Over 30.5 −114FanDuel | 33.5 at two books | 3-yard line gap |
| Bryce Underwood | Rush yards | Over 31.5 +100Caesars | −114 to −115 elsewhere | 14–15¢ price gap |
| Isaiah Sategna III | Receiving yards | Over 59.5 −101BetOnline.ag | 63.5 at three books | 4-yard line gap |
| Trell Harris | Receiving yards | Over 41.5 −116BetOnline.ag | 46.5–47.5 elsewhere | 6-yard market range |
| JJ Buchanan | Anytime TD | +310FanDuel | Low of +190 | 120-point price gap |
| Xavier Robinson | Anytime TD | +260FanDuel | Low of +130 | 130-point price gap |
What this proves
The server recorded 225 offers from BetMGM, BetOnline.ag, Bovada, Caesars, DraftKings and FanDuel at one timestamp.
We normalized players, markets, sides, thresholds and prices so line differences are visible instead of averaged away.
No probability means no fair price. No fair price means no edge, grade or official unit can be honestly published yet.
Source: OddsFoundry CFB engine forward market capture, September 12, 2026 at 9:29 a.m. ET. Snapshot ID c569bcfc5553…. Prices move and may no longer be available. Read how the release process works.
