OddsFoundry · Film Room · NFL Week 3
Patriots at Jaguars
Jacksonville is laying a field goal at home. Every board lens has New England winning the game. The case is a Patriots defense that has allowed 16 points in two weeks, plus a Drake Maye who plays closer to his 2025 than to his four interceptions so far.
Lens
Findings
Patriots side on the left, Jaguars side on the right. Grades compare both units to league average, so a good offense against a good defense lands near zero. Hatched bars are low confidence: the tape and the baseline disagree on who owns that matchup. Ranks in brackets are out of 32.
X's and O's
Charted from nflverse play by play and FTN charting for both 2026 games. Where a number says league, it is the 2026 league average through Week 2.
Patriots offense vs Jaguars defense
Josh McDaniels' offense · Anthony Campanile's defense
- Jacksonville's defense is all or nothing. The Jaguars blitz on 39 percent of dropbacks, seventh most. When they send extra, offenses lose 0.61 EPA per dropback and get sacked 16.7 percent of the time. When they sit back, offenses gain +0.44 per dropback (league +0.12).
- Maye is better against the blitz. He is at +0.09 EPA with a 4.5 percent sack rate on 22 blitzed dropbacks, and -0.06 with a 10.6 percent sack rate on 47 without one. Jacksonville's best weapon runs into his best look.
- The deep ball is there. Jacksonville allowed 5 of 8 on throws 20+ yards downfield for 176 yards (+1.55 EPA per throw, league +0.49) and a 12.4 percent explosive rate, 30th. Romeo Doubs owns 38 percent of New England's air yards at a 21.6-yard average depth, but Maye is 3 of 8 for 122 on deep throws.
- Hunter Henry gets the soft spot. Tight ends against Jacksonville: 7 catches on 8 targets, 10.5 yards per target and +0.70 EPA (league 7.3 and +0.27). Henry has 15 percent of New England's targets on 84 percent of snaps. Eli Raridon (thigh) is questionable after missing practice Thursday and Friday.
- Protection and ball security decide it. New England takes sacks on 8.7 percent of dropbacks (25th) and has 5 giveaways in two games. FTN charted 5.8 percent of Maye's dropbacks as interception-worthy, third highest (league 2.5). RG Mike Onwenu is on IR, so Greg Van Roten starts. All 5 Jacksonville sacks came against Cleveland; it had none at Denver.
Jaguars offense vs Patriots defense
Liam Coen and OC Grant Udinski · Zak Kuhr's first year as DC
- Lawrence has barely seen a blitz. Jacksonville has faced one on 18 percent of dropbacks, fewest in the league. On those 10 dropbacks Lawrence completed 4 passes, took a sack and averaged -0.40 EPA. Without a blitz he is at +0.40. New England blitzes 38 percent of the time, ninth most, and opponents lose 0.35 EPA per dropback when it does. Ten plays is a small sample.
- Third down is New England's whole defense. Opponents converted 4 of 23 third downs, best in the league. Jacksonville converted 10 of 21. The Patriots allowed 16 points in two games, but the passers were Drew Lock and Aaron Rodgers.
- Parker Washington is the passing game. He has 37 percent of Jacksonville's targets and 55 percent of its air yards, with 12 targets at Denver. Brian Thomas Jr. has 22 percent of targets on 45 percent of snaps. New England has held wideouts to 6.2 yards per target (league 8.4) and -0.01 EPA (league +0.28).
- Jacksonville hunts big plays. Lawrence's average throw travels 10.5 yards (league 8.0), and 16 percent of his dropbacks go 20+ yards. He is 4 of 9 for 122 on those. The Jaguars' 13.0 percent explosive rate is third. New England has allowed 7.0 percent and only 5 throws of 20+ yards in two games.
- The Patriots' front is thin. Dre'Mont Jones (55 percent of snaps, a team-high 4 QB hits) and Quintayvious Hutchins are out, Harold Landry is on PUP, and S Craig Woodson (83 percent of snaps, shoulder) is questionable. Runs off tackle against New England have gone for 6.3 yards a carry (+0.36 EPA, 7 carries). Bhayshul Tuten is at 14 carries a game.
The sim
150,000 games, drive by drive. The only dial that matters is how much weight the two 2026 games get against a roster-adjusted 2025. The highlighted row is my number.
| Weight on 2026 film | Jaguars | Patriots | Margin | Total | Patriots +3 covers | Over 45.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.00 | 23.1 | 22.7 | JAX +0.4 | 45.8 | 54.9% | 49.0% |
| 0.15 | 23.0 | 23.6 | NE +0.6 | 46.7 | 57.8% | 51.7% |
| 0.25 | 23.0 | 24.1 | NE +1.1 | 47.1 | 59.4% | 52.7% |
| 0.35 | 23.0 | 24.7 | NE +1.7 | 47.6 | 60.8% | 54.4% |
| 0.50 | 22.9 | 25.6 | NE +2.7 | 48.5 | 63.5% | 56.7% |
No row reaches the market. With zero weight on the 2026 tape the sim has Jacksonville by 0.4, and the market asks for 3. I set pace at 10.5 drives a team, under the 10.8 league average: Jacksonville has averaged 9.0 drives a game with the third-longest drives in the league and New England 10.5, against 11.4 and 10.6 in 2025. The total runs 45.8 to 48.5 across the table and sits at 47.1 on my row. At 9.8 drives it falls to 44.1; at 11.2 it rises to 50.2.
The card
Every board lens has New England: film by 4.0, 2025 baseline by 0.5, blend by 1.6. The sim still has 59.5 percent at +2.5. The Patriots lead the league on third-down defense and Maye handles the blitz Jacksonville leans on. The moneyline at +130 to +140 prices New England at 42 to 43 percent; the sim has 53.4. If Moses (foot) is inactive, the added protection uncertainty reduces confidence in the Patriots case.
Built on 29.9 attempts, close to his 2025 average of 28.9. Jacksonville allowed 9.3 yards per attempt through two games and bleeds when it does not blitz. Still 12 percent clear at 222.5 where books hang that number. The risk is a lead: he threw 22 times in the 20-3 win over Pittsburgh.
His job is vertical: a 21.6-yard average depth of target and 3 catches on 7 targets. The model has 3.8 targets and 2 catches. He caught 3 of 4 in the one game without A.J. Brown, and the juice is heavy, so it stays a lean.
The Patriots' defense says under. The script says over: if Jacksonville trails, Lawrence gets to his 32.5 attempts line. The two cancel.
At 10.5 drives a team the sim has 47.1 and the over at 52.7 percent. That is too thin to play. Both New England games finished at 23 points, and at 9.8 drives the sim lands at 44.1. Weather is no help either way: dry, light wind, around 80 at kickoff.
What breaks it
The Patriots' defense is a schedule effect
- It faced Drew Lock and a Pittsburgh offense that lost 0.30 EPA per play in its other game. Jacksonville scored 34 on Cleveland. If 4 of 23 on third down is noise, the Jaguars stay on schedule and the 2025 baseline, close to a coin flip, is the better read.
Maye keeps giving it away
- Five giveaways in two games and the third-highest interception-worthy rate in the league. Jacksonville has 3 takeaways. Two short fields for the Jaguars erase the whole edge.
The tackles go down
- Morgan Moses (foot) was limited all week and Onwenu is already on IR. If Moses sits, Travon Walker and Josh Hines-Allen face a line missing two starters, and the Maye over goes with the protection.
How a row gets graded
Each row adds the offense's effect and the defense's effect relative to league average, then divides by a fixed scale and caps at 5. The 2026 film lens uses opponent-adjusted two-game rates on a wider scale, because two-game numbers swing about twice as much as full-season ones. The 2025 baseline keeps 80 percent of Jacksonville's offense and defense (same QB, same coordinators, Coen's second year), 70 percent of New England's offense (same QB and OC, but Romeo Doubs and A.J. Brown are new and Brown is on IR) and 60 percent of New England's defense (Zak Kuhr moved up to DC). I added a small pass defense penalty for New England, +0.01 EPA per dropback, for Landry on PUP and Dre'Mont Jones and Hutchins out. Lawrence's prop is built on 31 attempts for game script.
| Row | Metric | Weight | 2026 film | 2025 base | Confidence |
|---|
Sources: nflverse play by play, FTN charting and snap counts (2026 Weeks 1 and 2, 2025 regular season). Injury reports from Patriots.com, Boston.com, Yahoo Sports and Sports Illustrated's Jaguar Report. Coordinators from NESN and Jaguars.com. Lines from DraftKings via Sports Illustrated, BetMGM via TheLines, Covers and Bookmakers Review. Props from SportsBettingDime and Bookmakers Review. Weather from Heavy and Covers. Backfield and snap notes from Fantasy Life. Lines as posted Sunday morning.
Original report and source attribution · All Film Rooms · Official board
Entertainment and editorial research only. Source estimates are reproduced here; no new simulation was run for this publication.