OddsFoundry · Film Room · NFL Week 3
Seahawks at Commanders
Jayden Daniels is out with a dislocated left elbow and Sam Darnold is back from a glute injury. The spread has moved to 8.5 at most books and the total sits at 40.5. All three board lenses have Seattle winning by 11.6 or more, and the total comes down to rain, wind and pace.
Lens
Findings
Seahawks side on the left, Commanders side on the right. Grades compare both units to league average, so a good offense against a good defense lands near zero. Hatched bars are low confidence: the tape and the baseline disagree on who owns that matchup. Ranks in brackets are out of 32.
X's and O's
Charted from nflverse play by play and FTN charting for both 2026 games. Where a number says league, it is the 2026 league average through Week 2.
Seahawks offense vs Commanders defense
Brian Fleury's first year as OC, Darnold back · Daronte Jones' first year as DC
- Washington's four-man rush has been a sieve. Without a blitz, opponents put up +0.74 EPA and 10.9 yards per dropback on 39 plays. With one, -0.23 EPA and a 13.3 percent sack rate. Jones blitzes 43.5 percent of dropbacks, fourth most. Frankie Luvu, who had a Week 1 sack, is out. Dak Prescott went 26 of 31 for 279 yards and 4 TDs against this group in Week 2.
- Jaxon Smith-Njigba is the passing game. 44 percent of Seattle's targets and 52 percent of its air yards, 17 catches for 277 yards. With Darnold in 2025 he had a 34 percent share and 105.5 yards a game. In this matchup last season: 8 catches, 129 yards.
- The middle and the deep third are open. Washington has allowed +1.29 EPA on throws to the middle (10 attempts), +1.19 at 10 to 19 yards and +1.57 on 20+ yard throws. Seattle's best area with volume is the middle at 10 to 19 yards (+0.93). Safety Nick Cross, 99 percent of snaps, is out.
- Play action carries Seattle. Seattle uses it on 35 percent of dropbacks, most in the league, and gets +0.90 EPA against +0.15 without it. Washington has been worse against straight dropbacks (+0.36) than against play action (+0.22), so Darnold does not need the fake to find room.
- The run game has not arrived. Seattle is 24th at -0.17 EPA per rush and 2.6 yards a carry on 22 runs up the middle. Off tackle it is 6.5 on 10 runs. Washington has held middle runs to 1.7 yards but allowed 6.6 on 11 runs at the guards.
Commanders offense vs Seahawks defense
David Blough's first year as OC, Marcus Mariota starting · Macdonald and Aden Durde's defense
- Mariota for Daniels is a smaller drop than it sounds. Daniels dislocated his left elbow in Dallas. Mariota finished that game 11 of 16 for 111 yards and a TD. In 2025 he posted +0.03 EPA per dropback (league +0.04) and 7.5 yards per attempt, but took sacks on 6.1 percent of dropbacks. Washington has allowed 1.2 percent this year, second best.
- Seattle wins with four. Macdonald blitzed 23 percent of dropbacks, 25th, and sent four on 54 of 73 charted dropbacks. Opponents got -0.06 EPA against it. Leonard Williams has 2 sacks and Derick Hall 4 QB hits. Drake Maye threw 3 interceptions in Week 1.
- Nothing explodes. Seattle has allowed an explosive play on 1.8 percent of snaps, best in the league. Five throws of 20+ air yards lost 1.95 EPA each. Wideouts get 4.2 yards per target (league 8.4). Diggs has 23 percent of Washington's targets and McLaurin has 4 catches on 13 targets.
- No room to run. -0.40 EPA per rush allowed, second, after finishing first in 2025. Jacory Croskey-Merritt has 28 carries for 106 yards. Guard Sam Cosmi (98 percent of snaps) is out and Lucas Patrick is the likely fill-in. TE Chig Okonkwo is out again and Ben Sinnott played 68 percent in Week 2.
- Thin at safety, still strong on third down. Julian Love (98 percent of snaps) and Ty Okada are out, leaving Rodney Thomas II as the only safety with a full 2026 workload. Seattle holds offenses to 29 percent on third down (5th) after 32 percent in 2025 (1st). Washington converts 45 percent.
The sim
150,000 games, drive by drive, with moderate weather built in: the rain and gusts take 0.04 EPA off every dropback for both offenses. The only dial that matters is how much weight the two 2026 games get. The highlighted row is my number. The market at Seattle -8.5 sits between the 0.00 and 0.15 rows, so it prices in very little of this year's tape.
| Weight on 2026 film | Commanders | Seahawks | Margin | Total | Seahawks -8.5 covers | Over 40.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.00 | 18.7 | 25.9 | SEA +7.2 | 44.6 | 46.4% | 59.5% |
| 0.15 | 17.6 | 27.4 | SEA +9.8 | 45.0 | 54.2% | 60.6% |
| 0.25 | 16.7 | 28.2 | SEA +11.5 | 45.0 | 59.3% | 60.8% |
| 0.35 | 16.0 | 29.2 | SEA +13.2 | 45.1 | 63.9% | 61.3% |
| 0.50 | 14.8 | 30.6 | SEA +15.8 | 45.4 | 71.0% | 62.0% |
Every row has the total at 44.6 to 45.4, weather included. The sim plays 10.8 drives a side, the league average. These teams have run 10.0 and 10.5 this year. At 10.1 drives the total drops to 42.1 and the over is 53 percent.
The card
No book price for the 90.5 over: BetOnline lists 90.5 without odds, PrizePicks has 90.5, and the only real price I found is DraftKings 100+ at +112. He has 44 percent of the targets this year, 105.5 yards a game with Darnold in 2025 and over 90.5 in 13 of 17 of those games. Washington's four-man rush gives up +0.74 EPA a dropback and its middle of the field is the softest area on the tape. Darnold-only 2025 usage on 27 attempts still projects 105. The prop model has no weather in it and yardage is right-skewed, so the median sits under 133. The report’s entry condition is a posted price near -115 or better; skip it if gusts are at 30 at kickoff.
The highlighted simulation row has Seattle by 11.5 and the board by 12.2. At -8.5 (bet365, DraftKings, Caesars) cover is 59.3 percent in the highlighted simulation row. Most of the edge comes from the film lens: the 2025 baseline alone says Seattle by 7.2. A sloppy, low-possession rain game also shrinks margins. Only at -7.5 or -8.
With Darnold in 2025 he averaged 37 yards and cleared 21.5 in 14 of 16 games. Rashid Shaheed has cut into his role this year: 5 targets in two games for 35 and 20 yards. Washington allows 9.1 yards per WR target (league 8.4). The volume is thin, so it stays a lean.
With moderate weather built in, the sim is 45.0 and the over hits 60.8 percent in the highlighted simulation row, but that is at the league's drive pace. These teams have run 10.0 and 10.5 drives a game, and at 10.1 the sim is 42.1 with the over at 53 percent. If the gusts reach 30, even that is high. Seattle's defense allows 0.89 points per drive. No clean edge.
Washington allows 8.6 yards per attempt this year and was 30th in EPA per dropback in 2025. But 8.8 Y/A on 27 attempts is only 6 percent over the line. Seattle passes on 47 percent of plays, and a lead in the rain means more handoffs.
What breaks it
The weather wins
- The sim has moderate weather in it, not a downpour with 30 mph gusts. If it pours, Seattle runs 35 times, Darnold throws 22 passes and Smith-Njigba's volume dries up. That hurts both receiver props and helps Washington stay inside 8.
Mariota is fine
- He was near league average per dropback in 2025, level with Daniels' own 2025 number, and his legs keep drives alive. If Washington's offense plays at average, 8.5 is a lot to lay in a game with a 40 total.
Jones' blitz gets home
- When Washington sends extra rushers, opponents are at -0.23 EPA with a 13.3 percent sack rate. If Jones blitzes every down and Seattle's line (5.6 percent sack rate this year) cannot hold up, the passing edge that drives this whole board closes.
How a row gets graded
Each row adds the offense's effect and the defense's effect relative to league average, then divides by a fixed scale and caps at 5. The 2026 film lens uses opponent-adjusted two-game rates on a wider scale, because two-game numbers swing about twice as much as full-season ones. The 2025 baseline keeps 60 percent of Seattle's offense (Darnold is back, but Brian Fleury replaced Klint Kubiak as OC), 80 percent of Seattle's defense (Macdonald and Durde both return), 50 percent of Washington's offense (new OC David Blough and a backup QB) and 60 percent of Washington's defense (new DC Daronte Jones). Injury adjustments: Washington's offense loses 0.02 EPA per dropback for Mariota starting plus Cosmi and Okonkwo out. Washington's defense gives up 0.01 more for Luvu and Cross. Seattle's defense gives up 0.01 more for Love and Okada. The sim takes 0.04 EPA per dropback off both offenses for the rain and gusts, and plays 10.8 drives a side. There is no extra adjustment for Darnold replacing Lock. Seattle's 2026 film is Lock's tape (+0.54 EPA per dropback above league after opponent adjustment), but Darnold has the better record (+0.13 EPA per dropback on 516 dropbacks in 2025), so a penalty for the switch is not supported. It would also hit the 2025 baseline, which is already Darnold's. The risk in Lock's two hot games is small sample, which the 35 and 25 percent film weights handle, and it is why the side is only a lean.
| Row | Metric | Weight | 2026 film | 2025 base | Confidence |
|---|
Sources: nflverse play by play and FTN charting, nflverse snap counts, Seahawks.com and Commanders.com injury reports, NFL.com, Sports Illustrated, NBC Sports (PFT), VegasInsider, SportsBettingDime, BetMGM, SportsGrid (FanDuel), Fantasy Life, Athlon Sports (DraftKings), Gambling911 (BetOnline), Capital Weather, OverUnderWeather.
Original report and source attribution · All Film Rooms · Official board
Entertainment and editorial research only. Source estimates are reproduced here; no new simulation was run for this publication.